WDXS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) 
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.4S 69.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 708 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241414Z
SSMIS PASS DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS PASS AN EXPOSED CENTER EVIDENT IN EIR IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
AT THE HIGH END OF MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES IN
LIGHT OF 75-80 KT ESTIMATED WINDS DERIVED FROM A 241343Z RADARSAT
SAR PASS. A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS SUPPORTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE PERSISTENT, MODERATE NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 241343Z SAR AND 241800Z OBJECTIVE BEST
TRACK DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 241500Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON THE LATEST SUITE OF
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ENALA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT A STEADY PACE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. THEREAFTER,
THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE STEERING FLOW PATTERN
REORIENTS IN THE WAKE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
SOUTH. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DESPITE CONTINUED STRONG,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, PERSISTENT
SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER (25-26C) AND A LESS FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL DRIVE THE WEAKENING TREND, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS A
BIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (BEYOND TAU 
120).

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT DIVERGE THEREAFTER BASED ON VARYING
DEPICTIONS OF THE EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW FORWARD MOTION BETWEEN TAU 72 
AND TAU 120, BUT THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
GALWEM MODEL FORECAST ACCELERATION EASTWARD BY TAU 120 WHILE THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND UKMET GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT
ACCELERATION TO THE WEST. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FAVORS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADJUSTMENT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWS BROAD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE WEAKENING TREND,
AND THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN