WDXS32 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.1S 70.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 748 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. TC ENALA IS CURRENTLY BATTLING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS IT CONTINUES TO TRANSIT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC ENALA TO BE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CONSISTENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND WARM (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 240142Z SSMIS 37GHZ AND 91HZ IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS FIMP: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS ADT: 80 KTS AT 240630Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ENALA CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT TRANSITS THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH STRUGGLING TO KEEP ITS MOISTURE DUE TO THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE ROBUST UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AS IT MAKES ITS WAY FURTHER SOUTH, ASSISTING IN MAINTAINING ITS TC STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO ENTERING A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER (25-30 KTS) VWS AND COOLER (25-26 C) SSTS. BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 120, TC ENALA WILL BE IN A QUASI-STATIONARY POSTURE AS THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE VWS WILL DECREASE JUST BEFORE THE TROUGH PASSES NEAR THE SYSTEM, GIVING TC 14S AN OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN SOME INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UP TO TAU 72, THEN SOME CONFUSION IN TRACK GUIDANCE OUT TO TAU 120. THE NAVGEM TRACKER IS THE OUTLIER SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. BECAUSE THIS THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SET TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK. THE CONSENSUS ENVELOPE HAS A 102 NM SPREAD AT TAU 24, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 230 NM BY TAU 48. FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120, THERE IS CONFUSION AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AS THE MODELS APPEAR TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE LATER TAUS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OUT TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE OUT TO TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN OVERALL DECREASE TREND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAU 96 WHERE THERE IS A JUMP BACK UP IN INTENSITY LIKE DUE TO A SMALL PERIOD OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN