WDXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 
043//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.8S 37.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 149 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AFTER TRAVELING OVER 5500 MILES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN,
TC 11S (FREDDY) IS FINALLY ENTERING THE TWILIGHT OF ITS LIFE CYCLE
AND WILL SHORTLY MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE. BUT TC FREDDY IS NOT YET READY TO GIVE UP THE GHOST
COMPLETELY, AND HAS STEADILY, BUT RATHER SLOWLY, INTENSIFIED ONCE
MORE AFTER MOVING INTO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED
DIRECTLY OVER EUROPA ISLAND, WHICH RECORDED A SIX HOUR PLUS PERIOD
OF SUSTAINED 50-60 KNOT WINDS AS A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINED STATIONARY OVER THE
ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SHRIMP-SHAPED STRUCTURE, WITH A SMALL CORE OF CONVECTION BUBBLING
NEAR THE ASSESSED CENTER, AND A BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING UP TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
BASED ON A CONFLUENCE OF AGENCY FIX POSITIONS AND NEAR A WARM SPOT
IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED ABOVE THE
BULK OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0. A 222210Z AMSR2
WINDSPEED ESTIMATE SHOWED MAX WINDS NEAR 55 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A POOL OF WARM (29-30C) WATERS LYING DIRECTLY
ON THE COAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 231951Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 240000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FREDDY IS FORECAST TO TRACK DUE WEST OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12, ALONG THE COAST
OF MOZAMBIQUE NEAR INHAMBANE. ONCE ASHORE, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW
DOWN AS IT CONTINUES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWEST AND DRIFTING SLOWLY FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN
AFRICA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH LOW VWS, GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. PASSAGE OVER THE WARM POOL OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) WATERS SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE, SHOULD PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL SHOT OF ENERGY JUST BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES THE COAST
AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH 65 TO 70 KNOTS AS IT IS MAKING
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN TAU 48. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC NUMERICAL
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION IS THE NAVGEM, WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE RIDGE INITIALLY, THEN TURNS IT BACK TO THE EAST, PERFORMS TWO
LOOPS AND THEN STEADIES UP ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 48.
ALL THAT BEING SAID, IT IS CONSIDERED HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO ACTUALLY
OCCUR. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE TRACKS THE SYSTEM INLAND TO TAU 24,
THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY NORTHWARD, SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION THROUGH LANDFALL FOLLOWED BY RAPID
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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