WDXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING 
NR 042//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.5S 39.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 48 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 231117Z AMSR2
IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THICK
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANTS. THE 231000Z AND 231200Z OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA ISLAND
BOTH REPORTED 56 KNOTS OF WIND FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER THE
SYSTEM PASSED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 11S TO BE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUAL
TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CONSISTENT
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A
VERY STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA ISLAND
ALONG WITH A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 231104Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 231230Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FREDDY CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TRACK AS IT
TRANSITS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TO THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS INCREASE IN INTENSITY WILL BE THE RESULT
OF CONTINUAL WRAPPING OF CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE CENTER OF THE
LLCC. IN ADDITION, THE SSTS WILL INCREASE TO 29-30 C THE CLOSER THE
STORM MOVES TO THE COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HIGH
RESOLUTION COMAPS-TC INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AS TC FREDDY TRANSITS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
BY TAU 24, TC 11S WILL DECREASE TO 40 KNOTS AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR VILANKULOS, MOZAMBIQUE. BY TAU 36, TC FREDDY WILL DISSIPATE AS
A 30 KNOT SYSTEM FURTHER INLAND. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A CONTINUAL WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THE NAVGEM TRACKER IS THE
OUTLIER WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER MEMBERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BECAUSE THIS THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK TO SET
TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE
JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH DECREASES THE INTENSITY WELL BEYOND THE
OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN