WDXS31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 042// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.5S 39.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 48 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 231117Z AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THICK CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. THE 231000Z AND 231200Z OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA ISLAND BOTH REPORTED 56 KNOTS OF WIND FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 11S TO BE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CONSISTENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A VERY STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA ISLAND ALONG WITH A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 231104Z CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 231230Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FREDDY CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TRACK AS IT TRANSITS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TO THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS INCREASE IN INTENSITY WILL BE THE RESULT OF CONTINUAL WRAPPING OF CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. IN ADDITION, THE SSTS WILL INCREASE TO 29-30 C THE CLOSER THE STORM MOVES TO THE COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION COMAPS-TC INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS TC FREDDY TRANSITS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. BY TAU 24, TC 11S WILL DECREASE TO 40 KNOTS AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR VILANKULOS, MOZAMBIQUE. BY TAU 36, TC FREDDY WILL DISSIPATE AS A 30 KNOT SYSTEM FURTHER INLAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUAL WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THE NAVGEM TRACKER IS THE OUTLIER WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER MEMBERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BECAUSE THIS THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK TO SET TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH DECREASES THE INTENSITY WELL BEYOND THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN