WDXS32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 72.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 613 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RELATIVELY
TIGHT BALL OF CONVECTION WITH EVIDENCE OF RUGGED, FRAGMENTED
BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 230155Z SSMIS IMAGE
REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A MICROWAVE EYE, AND A BULLSEYE 230452Z
ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS THE SYSTEM TO BE FAIRLY ORGANIZED ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT SMALL IN NATURE WITH A COUPLE OF 50 KNOT WIND BARBS
PRESENT NEAR THE CORE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC ENALA TO
BE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CONSISTENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AN IMPRESSIVE 850 MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND ASCAT-C PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BLEND OF
MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 230256Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 230300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ENALA CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK AS IT TRANSITS THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY FURTHER SOUTH, ASSISTING IN MAINTAINING ITS TC
STRENGTH. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER, TC ENALA IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON
TO ITS MOISTURE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO ENTERING A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER VWS. BETWEEN TAUS 72
AND 96, TC ENALA WILL PASS OVER COOLER (25-26 C) SSTS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS A RESULT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A CONTINUAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, THEN SHIFTING TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 48. THE NAVGEM TRACKER IS THE OUTLIER
SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BECAUSE THIS THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SET TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CONSENSUS TRACK. THE CONSENSUS ENVELOPE HAS A 25 NM SPREAD AT
TAU 12, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 121 NM BY TAU 48, FURTHER
INCREASING TO 220 NM AFTER TAU 96. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OUT TO TAU 72, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OUT TO TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH DECREASES
THE INTENSITY WELL BEYOND THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS. AS A RESULT,
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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