WDXS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 
041//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.1S 41.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 50 NM EAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS REFORMED IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) CROSSED
OVER MADAGASCAR. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN BACK OVER WATER FOR NEARLY 12
HOURS, AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT HAS NOT YET EXPANDED OVER THE LLCC ITSELF.
A 221923Z ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED A BROADENED CORE WIND
FIELD WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 NM AND A SLIGHT
ELONGATION FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON THIS SAME ASCAT PASS AND SURFACE
WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA ISLAND ABOUT 50 NM WEST OF FREDDY,
WHICH HAVE REMAINED IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. SOME DRY, STABLE AIR IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION, AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO
EQUATORWARD DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES PUSHING INTO THE
STORM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 222145Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 222100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) HAS EMERGED OVER
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL
IN MOZAMBIQUE IN 24-36 HOURS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
GUIDES FREDDY ACROSS THE CHANNEL. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
AS FREDDY REGENERATES DEEP CONVECTION AROUND ITS STILL WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE BROADNESS OF THE CIRCULATION IN
THE WAKE OF CROSSING MADAGASCAR LIKELY PLACES A LIMIT ON HOW
RAPIDLY THIS INTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY
ALSO RESTRAIN THE PACE OF DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE PREDICTS A RANGE OF PEAK INTENSITIES FROM 40 TO 60 KT
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN THE UPPER END
OF THIS RANGE, SHOWING A PEAK OF 55 KT IN 24 HOURS, CLOSEST TO THE
HWRF, COAMPS-TC, AND GFS MODELS. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT AXISYMMETRIZATION OF FREDDY'S CONVECTIVE CORE WILL OCCUR
DURING THE 12-24 HOUR PERIOD AS DEEPLY MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED FROM
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE AROUND TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE,
REPLACING THE DRY AIR THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THIS STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION IS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION, HENCE JTWC'S ASSESSMENT THAT THE HWRF, COAMPS-TC,
AND GFS FORECASTS ARE REALISTIC. THERE IS A NORMAL (MODERATE) LEVEL
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OVERALL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, PER THE DISCUSSION IN THE PREVIOUS
SECTION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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