WDXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING 
NR 040//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.4S 43.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 189 NM EAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN STRIPPED OF DEEP CONVECTION AFTER IT TRACKED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR, EXPOSING A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS
ABOUT TO EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLC IN THE MSI LOOP AND TRIANGULATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE WIND AND
MSLP OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING MORONDOVA, 115NM TO THE NNE, TOLIARA,
57NM TO THE SSE, AND EUROPA ISLAND, 160NM TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE 
RUGGED TERRAIN.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FREDDY WILL EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL 
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR 
THEN MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE SHORTLY AFTER TAU 
36. THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, MODERATE OUTFLOW, AND 
LOW VWS WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO 60KTS BY TAU 36. AFTER 
ITS FINAL LANDFALL, THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MOZAMBIQUE WILL RAPIDLY 
ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT 
WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 99NM AT TAU 72, LENDING HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH TOPOGRAPHY AFTER LANDFALL, THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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