WDXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING 
NR 039//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.1S 46.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 138 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 00 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHT
DEEP CONVECTIVE CIRCULATION THAT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FRAGMENTATION
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. A 212223Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH AN EXPOSED SOUTHERN QUADRANT
REVEALING FAINT LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND AMSR2 IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE
MOUNTAIN RANGE OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR GENERALLY AGREEING WITH
CIMMS ORDERED PATTERN ENCODING AI INFRARED TC INTENSITY ESTIMATOR
(OPEN-AIR), ONE OF THE FEW INTENSITY AIDS AVAILABLE OVER LAND.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: HAVING MADE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY SIX HOURS
AGO, TC 11S (FREDDY) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT IS RIPPED APART BY THE MOUNTAINOUS EASTERN
REGION OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO AROUND
45KTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MODERATE OUTFLOW
ALOFT, THESE ELEMENTS PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF
LAND INTERACTION. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND BY TAU 36, 11S IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS
FIFTH AND FINAL PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 60KTS. AS THE STR TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO BUILD, 11S WILL BE FORCED WESTWARD MAKING
LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48 AND QUICKLY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72. BY TAU
96, AFTER A HISTORIC TRIP OF OVER 5000 NM, TC 11S WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH AFRICA.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, COAMPS-TC (NVGM AND
GFS), HWRF AND UK-MET ENSEMBLE INDICATE A POSSIBLE SHARP POLEWARD
RECURVE BACK OVER THE CHANNEL WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE A POLEWARD TURN. FOR THESE REASONS THE INITIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS GENERALLY FOLLOWING
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72, AFTER WHICH THE MEMBERS
THAT TRACK BACK OVER WATER INDICATE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
WHILE THE REST RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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