WDXS31 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.9S 117.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 349 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EVEN MORE COMPACT AND DEEP AS FEEDER BANDS TRAILING FROM THE SOUTH WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FORMATIVE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP VERY WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 062243Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 65KTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE FORMATIVE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) WITH WARM SSTS, LOW VWS AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE ADJUSTED FOR INTENSIFICATION. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 062330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FREDDY WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS; AFTERWARD, IT WILL LEVEL OFF ON A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND THE INTRUSION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 80 KTS BY TAU TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL SPREADING TO 160NM BY TAU 120 WITH NAVGEM THE SOLE LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. UP TO TAU 72, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM. AFTER TAU 72, THE TRACK CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AS THE SPREAD WIDENS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM UP TO TAU 72 THEN LOW AFTERWARD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY DYNAMICS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN