WDPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) 
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.2N 111.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 210 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED,
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 140240Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A
BROAD, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM, AND 25-30 KNOT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING JUST AFTER TAU
12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND
WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER
TAU 12, GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERLAND. IN ADDITION TO
THE ASCAT DATA, INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO 35 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL THUS THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON THE NEXT WARNING. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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