WDXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BALITA) WARNING 
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.2S 86.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 961 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND THE ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT AN ASYMMETRIC REGION OF PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A 082147Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE MSI LOOP. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 25-26 CELSIUS RANGE, OFFSET BY
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 081928Z
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 082315Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03S IS SET TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 12 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NEARING TAU
24 THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO SLOW AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE IT BEGINS
TO ENCOUNTER A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL HIGH TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS
SLOW TURN, IT WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK 
OF 45 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE BLOCKING HIGH WILL SEIZE ANY FURTHER 
POLEWARD MOTION AND FORCE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A 
HARSHER ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TC 03S 
WILL MEET ITS ULTIMATE DEMISE OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AS IT 
ENTRAINS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR, TRANSITS OVER COOLER WATER, AND BEGINS 
ENCOUNTERING MORE UNFAVORABLE WIND SHEAR, DISSIPATING BY TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY, WITH A BULK OF THE MODELS TURNING THE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST BY TAU 24. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO GFS SOLUTION NO LONGER MAKING A TURN WEST
AND IS NOW ON A DIRECT SOUTHERLY ROUTE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND THE STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.     
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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