WDXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BALITA)     
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.1S 85.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 869 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING AND BUILDING OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081112Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEASTERN 
EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 27C. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 081215Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD 
THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS 
FORECAST TO REORIENT IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 
CONFIGURATION. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND TURN SOUTHWARD 
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. THIS 
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK ANY PROLONGED POLEWARD MOTION AND WILL 
STEER TC 03S ONTO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 36. TC 
03S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT ENTRAINS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR 
AND TRACKS OVER COOLER WATER, AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY WITH MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH SOME 
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TURN. NAVGEM REMAINS THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER WHILE THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED ALONG 16S. THE 080600Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS)
AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 40-45 KNOTS BY TAU 24 WITH STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.     

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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