WDXS31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BALITA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.3S 85.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 787 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A GROWING REGION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FULLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 072159Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A FRAGMENTED ALBEIT IMPROVED PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND AND TIGHTLY WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING A RANGE FROM 32KTS - 45KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 39 KTS AT 071946Z CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 072115Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03S (BALITA) CONTINUES ITS GENERALLY SOUTHWARD MARCH UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. AS EVIDENCED BY THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE, 03S IS ENTERING A SHORT WINDOW OF POSSIBLE RE-INTENSIFICATION BACK TO 40KTS. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE STR AXIS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO DROP POTENTIALLY ALLOWING THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND CONVECTIVE RECONSOLIDATION TO BOOST INTENSITY. BY TAU 24 AND THROUGH TAU 36, 03S WILL BE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD COURSE DUE TO A PASSING 500MB TROUGH REORIENTING THE STEERING RIDGE. BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL EXECUTE A HARD WESTWARD TURN AS SHEAR VALUES INCREASE, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTENSIFIES AND OHC VALUES DROP. THESE FACTORS COALESCE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72 AND RESULT IN FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT THE OVERALL TRAJECTORY OF 03S THOUGH CROSS TRACK AND ALONG TRACK VARIABILITY DOES INCREASE WITH TIME. NAVGEM IS A CLEAR SOUTHERLY OUTLIER WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A 150NM WIDE SPREAD AS VARIOUS MODELS EXECUTE THE WESTWARD TURN, AFTER WHICH ALONG TRACK SPREAD BECOMES DOMINATE. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY. ALL MEMBERS INDICATE THAT 03S WILL BRIEFLY INTENSIFY FOLLOWED BY A STAGNATION PERIOD AND FINALLY WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION. AS A RESULT THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH// NNNN