WDPN33 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 30.7N 130.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 153 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE TYPHOON STRENGTH CIRCULATION WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPING CLOUD LINES ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN KYUSHU. AN 180441Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF 16W IS QUICKLY DECLINING, CLOUD BANDS IN ALL QUADRANTS SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES FRAGMENT. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY COUPLED WITH STATION OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THAT 16W PASSED OVER YAKUSHIMA ISLAND AROUND 180410Z AS STATION PRESSURES BOTTOMED OUT AND STEADILY ROSE AGAIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PLETHORA OF DATA INCLUDING MSI, AMSR2, ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND STATION OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS INDICATING T5.0-5.5 WHILE CIMSS SATCON REMAINS AGGRESSIVE AND CIMSS ADT MAINTAINS A MORE CONSERVATIVE 87KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 106 KTS AT 180444Z CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 180540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION WITH JAPAN ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 16W (NANMADOL) CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES KYUSHU FROM THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, 16W WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND PROCEED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF KYUSHU, SIMULTANEOUSLY A STRONG COLD FRONT AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BREAKING DOWN THE STEERING RIDGE AND FORCING 16W TO EXECUTE A SHARP TURN NORTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 24, NOW TRACKING GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND HAVING ROUNDED THE AXIS OF THE STR, 16W WILL INCREASE SPEED TO AROUND 17KTS AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 36, 16W WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 50KTS, HAVING SUCCUMB TO INCREASED SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND LAND INTERACTION. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, 16W BEINGS TO INTERACT WITH THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEREBY INITIATING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTEGRATE ITSELF INTO THE SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE. AFTER TAU 48, THE REMNANTS OF 16W WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE PACIFIC WHERE IT WILL BE ROBED OF ITS REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, COMPLETING ETT NEAR TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: PRIOR TO TAU 24, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING A NORTHEASTERLY TURN NEAR TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24 HOWEVER, ALONG TRACK SPREADING INCREASES, THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS. COAMPS-TC (NVGM VERSION) AND NVGM TAKE A SLOW SOUTHERLY TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS TOKYO, WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES WITH THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING OFFSHORE OF TOKYO. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE TRENDS WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE KURIL ISLANDS. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS SHOWING SHARP WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST TRACK. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN