WDPN33 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 24.8N 134.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 387 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EVEN MORE COMPACT AS THE FEEDER BANDS, MOSTLY TRAILING TO THE SOUTH, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS MAINTAINED A VERY WARM (21C), SHARPLY-OUTLINED AND PERFECTLY SYMMETRICAL EYE THAT HAS SHRUNK TO 12NM IN DIAMETER. CONVECTIVE TOPS ALONG THE EYEWALL CONTINUED TO DEEPEN WITH TEMPERATURES AT -81C. THE EYEWALL IS ALSO HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL AND CONTINUOUS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL SUPER TYPHOON (STY) INTENSITY OF 130KTS US UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTED BY AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS CIMSS ADT: 130 KTS AT 161210Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY NANMADOL WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD, MAKE LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU, JAPAN, NEAR SASEBO JUST AFTER TAU 48. AFTERWARD, STY 16W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HONSHU AND BY TAU 12O WILL BE BACK IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN EAST OF MISAWA. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 135KTS BY TAU 12 AFTERWARD, COOLING SST, INCREASING VWS, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO 40KTS. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 72, STY 16W WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 120, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72 WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 88NM. AFTERWARD, THE SPREAD INCREASES TO 110NM AT TAU 120 WITH NVGM THE NOTABLE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER STARTING AT TAU 48 THEN REJOINS THE MAIN PACK BY TAU 96. THERE IS, HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS BEYOND TAU 72 WITH UEMN THE FASTEST AND NVGM THE SLOWEST. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO COMPENSATE FOR NVGM. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO TAU 72 WHERE THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO THE VARIATIONS IN THE SPEEDS THAT DIRECTLY AFFECT THE FORECAST INTENSITIES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN