WDPN33 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.2N 135.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 429 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME MORE COMPACT AS THE FEEDER BANDS, MOSTLY TRAILING TO THE
SOUTH, HAVE WRAPPED IN TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS
MAINTAINED A 15-NM SHARPLY-OUTLINED EYE. CONVECTIVE TOPS ALONG THE
EYEWALL CONTINUED TO DEEPEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED OVER JAPAN.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 110 KTS AT 160431Z
   CIMSS ADT: 115 KTS AT 160510Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY NANMADOL WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 48,
IT WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD, MAKE LANDFALL 
OVER KYUSHU, JAPAN, NEAR SASEBO BY TAU 60. AFTERWARD, TY 16W WILL 
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HONSHU AND BY TAU 12O WILL BE BACK IN 
THE PACIFIC OCEAN EAST OF MISAWA. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 130KTS BY TAU 24 AFTERWARD,
COOLING SST INCREASING VWS, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO 40KTS.
CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 96, TY 16W WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION 
AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 72 WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 90NM. AFTERWARD, THE
SPREAD INCREASES TO 230 AT TAU 120 WITH NVGM THE ERRATIC OUTLIER TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MAIN PACK IN THE MID-POTION AND THEN TO THE LEFT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT
ALONG TRACK VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS BEYOND TAU 72. IN VIEW OF
THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU
72 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO COMPENSATE 
FOR NVGM. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 
TAU 72 WHERE THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY, THEN LOW 
CONFIDENCE AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO THE VARIATIONS IN THE SPEEDS THAT 
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE FORECAST INTENSITIES. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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