WDPN32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 
038//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 36.5N 120.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 293 NM WEST OF KUNSAN AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICT A DECAYING CYCLONE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION, AND
MOST PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO
SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THIS IS NO SURPRISE DUE TO COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS AND LAND INTERACTION
THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE CIRCULATION
CENTER IS BACK OVER LAND AFTER SPENDING SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE
YELLOW SEA. THE SURFACE WINDS AT QINGDAO BACKED FROM NORTHEAST AT
151500Z TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 151800Z, INDICATING THAT THE CENTER
PASSED EAST OF THE CITY BETWEEN THOSE TIMES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF 33 KT OVER THE
YELLOW SEA AROUND 151500Z.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER JAPAN

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 22-23 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 14W (MUIFA) CONTINUES TO DECAY
AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND SOON NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE CENTER WILL PASS OVER A FINAL
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YELLOW SEA BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN CHINA IN A LITTLE OVER 12 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND FIELD
MAY REMAIN GALE FORCE DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER WATER, AS FORECAST BY
MOST GLOBAL MODELS, BUT RAPID DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER ITS
FINAL LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF THE YELLOW SEA DUE
TO A LACK OF BAROCLINIC SUPPORT. THE JTWC FORECAST TERMINATES AT 24
HOURS AS THE REMNANTS MOVE INLAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, WHICH IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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