WDPN32 PGTW 151500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 037// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 35.2N 120.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 247 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE EVEN AS IT EXITED BACK OVER WATER IN THE YELLOW SEA. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SHEARED FURTHER NORTHWARD AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ILL-DEFINED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP THAT MATCHED AN EQUALLY RAGGED LLC IN THE 151029Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES, EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE WIND AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAKENING TREND. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VWS, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION, AND COOL SSTS IN THE YELLOW SEA. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: EXTRAPOLATION FROM NEARBY SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 151140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 23-24 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MUIFA HAS CRESTED THE STR AXIS AND WILL NOW ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS OVER THE SHANDONG BANDAO PENINSULA, ACROSS THE GULF OF BO HAI, THEN MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL ON BO HAI PENINSULA AROUND TAU 18. THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, VERY LIKELY SOONER, AS IT DRAGS FURTHER INLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN CHINA. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES OF LAND INTERACTION LEADING TO A POSSIBLE EARLY DISSIPATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN