WDPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 
036//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 34.0N 120.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 180 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 00 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS
STRIPPED OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AS IT TRACKED OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS OF NORTHEAST CHINA EXPOSING A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC THAT MATCHED WITH A LLCC IN A COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
NUMEROUS NEARBY SURFACE WIND AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS
AND CONSISTENT WITH AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT SHOW
A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VWS, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION, AND COOLING SSTS IN THE YELLOW SEA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: EXTRAPOLATION FROM NEARBY SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 150453Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 150540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: OVER LAND
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MUIFA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD IN THE EAST
CHINA SEA AND MAKE ANOTHER LANDFALL ON SHANDONG BANDAO PENINSULA,
CREST THE STR AXIS, AND AFTER TAU 12, ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD VIA
THE YELLOW SEA AND MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL ON POHAI PENINSULA JUST
BEFORE TAU 24. THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, LIKELY SOONER,
AS IT DRAGS FURTHER INLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN CHINA. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES OF LAND INTERACTION LEADING TO A POSSIBLE EARLY
DISSIPATION. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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