WDPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 
035//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 32.8N 121.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 99 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED RADAR AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TS 14W
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
CHINA NORTH OF SHANGHAI. LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR INTRUSION HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS NOW NEARLY DEVOID OF
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS ASSESSED BASED ON
SATCON AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 61 KTS AT 2309Z
   CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 150040Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 14W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST BEYOND TAU 12. SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. WITHOUT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE INNER CORE, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT GRADUALLY
RECURVES OVER THE YELLOW SEA. BEYOND TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE, AND A FINAL LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY AROUND
TAU 30. DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS FORECAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 14W
WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE COAST OF CHINA BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION AFTER MAKING FINAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE YELLOW SEA. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH STEADY WEAKENING FORECAST THROUGH DISSIPATION BY
TAU 48. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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