WDPN32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNING 
NR 033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 29.9N 122.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 91 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA 
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE
BEGINNING STAGES OF 14W UNRAVELING AS IT INCREASES ITS INTERACTION
WITH SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THOUGH THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS DEEP
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE INNER CORE IS CLEARLY COMPROMISED. A
140942Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE TOGETHER WITH ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY, DRIVE HOME THE CONCEPT THAT 14W IS CONVECTIVELY LOPSIDED
WHILE STILL POSSESSING DEEP BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR, GMI AND RADAR IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A CONSERVATIVE ASSESSMENT OF VARYING AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T3.5-T4.5 AND CIMMS ADT REMAINING
STEADFAST AT 97KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 141140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 14W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE EAST. THERE IS INCREASING INDICATION THAT THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL REORIENT AND SHIFT EASTWARD AFTER TAU 12
ALLOWING FOR MORE OFFSHORE TRACK NEAR TAU 24. IN THE SHORT TERM,
THE ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT HOWEVER, THESE ARE LOSING THE
OVERALL WAR WITH WORSENING OCEANOGRAPHIC EFFECTS, PRIMARILY COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POOR COASTAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT NOT TO
MENTION THE INCREASING INTERACTION WITH MAINLAND CHINA. AS A
RESULT, INTENSITIES ARE FORECAST TO DROP STEADILY UNTIL LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 6, AFTER WHICH 14W WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA, GRADUALLY WEAKENING DUE TO THE RELATIVELY FLAT
TERRAIN AND SIZABLE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER
WATER. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KTS
AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE STR AND BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE YELLOW
SEA ON A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY COURSE. BY TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM WILL SUCCUMB TO THE SUSTAINED HARSH ENVIRONMENT EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING NORTH OF DANDONG CHINA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 14W
WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 6 AND TRANSIT THE COAST OF CHINA BEFORE
TURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING NORTH OF THE YELLOW SEA
WITH A SLIGHT DEGREE OF ALONG TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 72. FOR THIS
REASON THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THAT 14W
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES POLEWARD AND DISSIPATES NEAR
TAU 72. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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