WDPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNING 
NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.7N 122.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 167 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY
DEGRADING EYE THAT IS MORE AND MORE RAGGED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
LANDFALL. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN
TY 14W IS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FURTHER ILLUSTRATES
THE LACK OF DEFINITION TO THE INNER CORE OF THE ONCE DEFINED EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI
AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SHOWING T4.5-5.0 AND CIMSS ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 88-107
KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 88 KTS AT 140419Z
   CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 140540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 14W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
EAST. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS ARE FAVORABLE, LOW-MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, THESE ARE
LOSING THE OVERALL WAR WITH WORSENING OCEANOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POOR COASTAL OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. AS A RESULT, THROUGH TAU 12 AS 14W PREPARES TO MAKE
LANDFALL, SYSTEM INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL, 14W WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA,
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENING DUE TO THE RELATIVELY FLAT TERRAIN AND
SIZABLE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER WATER. BY TAU 36,
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KTS AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS
OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE YELLOW SEA ON A GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY COURSE. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL SUCCUMB TO
THE SUSTAINED HARSH ENVIRONMENT EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING NEAR THE
NORTHERN YELLOW SEA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGM, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 14W WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12 AND
TRANSIT COASTAL CHINA BEFORE TURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHERN YELLOW SEA. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THAT 14W WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES POLEWARD AND DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 72. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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