WDPN32 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 28.0N 123.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 214 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A 40 NM WIDE EYE THAT HAS BEGUN CONTRACTING DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION OF AROUND -70C CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE HAS NOW ENCIRCLED THE EYE, A MARKED IMPROVEMENT RELATIVE TO SIX HOURS AGO WHEN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAD MUCH WARMER CLOUD TOPS. RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY, THOUGH A NEARLY OPEN WALL IS NOW OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SEEN EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS, THOUGH PARTICULARLY SO TOWARD THE NORTH AS AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED WEST OF THE STORM OVER EASTERN CHINA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD IS NOW APPROACHING THE COASTLINE OF CHINA NEAR TAIZHOU, AND WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD TOWARD SHANGHAI DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85 KTS, A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND HIGHER ADT ESTIMATES OF 90 KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 132040Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ACCELERATED SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND 36 HOURS, AND NOW REACHES THE VICINITY OF DALIAN, CHINA BY 72 HOURS DUE TO A FASTER FORWARD MOTION FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CHINESE COASTLINE, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF NINGBO, CHINA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS, WITH A SECONDARY LANDFALL NEAR SHANGHAI, CHINA IN ABOUT 18 HOURS AFTER CROSSING HANGZHOU BAY. THE CYCLONE HAS DISPLAYED HEALTHY TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH A MORE SYMMETRIC INNER CORE DEVELOPING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM COOL WATERS CHURNED UP TO ITS SOUTH THAT IT HAD BEEN PASSING OVER DURING THE LAST 36 HOURS. THE CURRENTLY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE SHELF WATER OFF OF NINGBO IS COOLER AT 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND ALSO SHALLOWER, THUS HOLDING LESS TOTAL HEAT CONTENT. THIS, COMBINED WITH LAND INTERACTION SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHT WEAKENING ON APPROACH TO LANDFALL TO AN INTENSITY OF 75 KTS ON THE JTWC FORECAST. STEADY WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE AS MUIFA TRACKS JUST INLAND OF THE CHINESE COASTLINE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY DICTATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND JAPAN. MAXIMUM WINDS MAY BE SLOW TO FALL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOW, FLAT TERRAIN IN THIS PART OF CHINA AND THE FACT THAT THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVER WATER. GRADUAL DISSIPATION IS FORECAST BY 72 HOURS AS MUIFA IS STEERED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE VICINITY OF DALIAN, CHINA BY THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER DURING THE 36-72 HOUR PERIOD DUE TO A MARKED MULTI-RUN TREND IN GFS, ECMWF, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TOWARD A FASTER FORWARD MOTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL MODELS, AS WELL AS THE GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN