WDPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNING 
NR 028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.1N 124.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 200 NM WEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL
DEFINED SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPING BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A
MOSTLY CLEAR EYE. THOUGH COMPLETE MICROWAVE PASSES ARE
FRUSTRATINGLY UNCOMMON, A PARTIAL 130424Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DOES SHOW A WELL DEFINED EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A HIGHLY
SYMMETRICAL CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND AMSR2 IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SLIGHT
SEPARATION BETWEEN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH REPORT A
LOWER 70-77 KNOTS AND CIMSS ADT AND SATCON THAT ARE REPORTING A
MORE AGGRESSIVE 98-105 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 98 KTS AT 130437Z
   CIMSS ADT: 105 KTS AT 130600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 14W HAS STARTED EXECUTING ITS NORTHWESTWARD
TURN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. BY
TAU 12 AS TRACK SPEEDS CLIMB TO AROUND 7 KNOTS THE SYSTEM WILL
STILL BE IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT SOMEWHAT
BALANCED BY FALLING SST VALUES AND COOL OHC VALUES. BY TAU 24,
FALLING SST AND OHC VALUES BEGIN TO OVERPOWER THE OTHER FACTORS AND
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO FALL. SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 24, AS THE STR
CONTINUES TO FORCE THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD, 14W MAKES LANDFALL AND
INTENSITY VALUES TAKE A NOSE DIVE. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINING
FORECAST TRACK, 14W IS STEADILY RIPPED APART BY SOUTHEASTERN CHINA
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING NEAR TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGM, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 14W WILL MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 24 AND
DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 72. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THROUGH TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL STAGNATE
OR SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AFTER WHICH FURTHER WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL
AFTER WHICH A SHARP DECLINE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS
REASON THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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