WDPN32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.7N 124.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 200 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING AROUND AN APPROXIMATELY 30 NM DIAMETER 
RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON THE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY 
AND FIX DATA FROM JAPAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CONSERVATIVELY SET AT THE LOWER END OF
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90
TO 102 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 96 KTS AT 122157Z
   CIMSS ADT: 102 KTS AT 122330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 14W HAS BRIEFLY TRACKED A BIT TO THE EAST
OF DUE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE THE EASTWARD
COMPONENT TO RECENT MOTION, TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO VEER GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OR PERHAPS CONTINUE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY UNDER THE
FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WITH DECREASING ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS A
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR. AS 14W PROGRESSES ALONG ITS TRACK,
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE WEAKENING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AT OR NEAR MINIMAL TYPHOON INTENSITY AROUND 
TAU 36. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, WITH
DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 96.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY OUTLIER ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE
DIVERGES AFTER TAU 72, BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL-INLAND AND
DISSIPATING BY THAT POINT AND SLOW OR MEANDERING MOTION OF THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION IS LIKELY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE INTENSITY TREND IN BOTH THE NEAR AND
EXTENDED TERM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
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