WDPN32 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.8N 124.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEADILY WEAKENING, MORE ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EYEWALL. THE SMALL EYE, WHICH HAD BEEN EVIDENT ON THE 111730Z EIR IMAGE, IS NOW CLOUD-FILLED. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING AN 111240Z ASCAT-C WINDSPEED IMAGE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ISHIGAKI-JIMA HAVE INCREASED QUICKLY TO 48 KNOTS SUSTAINED (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 63 KNOTS, AND SLP NEAR 985MB. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND HOURLY RJTD RADAR FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THE SLOW TRACK SPEED, TY 14W IS UPWELLING COOLER WATER WITHIN THE SAME REGION THAT STY 12W HAD RECENTLY UPWELLED COOLER WATER. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK EXTENSION TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 98 KTS AT 111742Z CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 111730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: UPWELLING COOL WATER ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVEST 92W) TO THE EAST, THE STR IS WEAK EAST OF THE SYSTEM, THEREFORE, TY 14W IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD. THE PRIMARY STR REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN JAPAN WITH A BROAD 500MB TROUGH POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CHINA EXTENDING OVER, AND ENVELOPING TY 14W. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA THEN STEADY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER TAU 72, TY 14W WILL ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY STR OVER WESTERN JAPAN. RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM SKIRTS THE EAST COAST OF CHINA. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 140NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE BULK OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS WHICH CURL THE SYSTEM WESTWARD OVER CHINA. AFTER TAU 72, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FURTHER INLAND IS FEASIBLE AND WILL RESULT IN A FASTER DISSIPATION SCENARIO. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN