WDPN32 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.9N 124.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 288 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED TYPHOON WITH A SYMMETRICAL DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A 24-NM EYE THAT HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AND SHARPLY-OUTLINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MAI LOOP THAT WAS CONCENTRIC WITH A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW AND LIGHT VWS OVER WARM SST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 103 KTS AT 110514Z CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 110510Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY MUIFA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 12, A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING CHINA VIA THE YELLOW SEA WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING STR, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD. BEHIND THE TROUGH, A SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTHWEST IS ALREADY COMPETING FOR STEERING CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD ANEW AND REGAIN FULL STEERING AND ACCELERATE TY 14W NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 120KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, COOLING SST IN THE EAST CHINA SEA, EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING DURING THE SLOW TRACK MOTION, WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH, VWS WILL ALSO INCREASE, LEADING TO A STEADY EROSION AND BY 120, TY 14W WILL BE REDUCED TO 40KTS AS IT ENTERS THE COLDER YELLOW SEA. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MAIN PACK OF NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO 130NM BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE MEMBERS WIDELY SPREAD OUT IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. JGSM IS THE NOTABLE SOLE OUTLIER DRIVING THE VORTEX IMMEDIATELY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PACK FROM TAU 24. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET JGSM, UP TO TAU 72 THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO TAU 72 THEN LOW AFTERWARD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN