WDPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.7N 125.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 312 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MEDIUM-SIZED TYPHOON WITH A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
PUNCTUATED BY A 24-NM EYE. LONG CIRRI STREAKS WITH TRANSVERSE 
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY INDICATE ROBUST POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT 
LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 100952Z SSMIS PASS. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
AVERAGE OF THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR 
IMPROVEMENT IN THE EIR SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW AND LIGHT VWS OVER WARM SST IN THE 
PHILIPPINE SEA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY MUIFA WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING CHINA VIA THE YELLOW SEA WILL WEAKEN THE STR,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. BEHIND THE
TROUGH, A SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOMENTARILY COMPETE
FOR STEERING. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONES SPEED OF ADVANCE UP
TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL REGAIN FULL
STEERING AND ACCELERATE TY 14W NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 115KTS
BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, COOLING SST IN THE EAST CHINA SEA,
EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING DURING THE SLOW TRACK MOTION, WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH, VWS WILL
ALSO INCREASE, LEADING TO A STEADY EROSION AND BY 120, TY 14W WILL
BE REDUCED TO 45KTS.    

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EVENLY 
SPREADING OUT TO 90NM BY TAU 72 AND 240NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST UP TO TAU 72 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE 
AFTERWARD. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST 
THAT IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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