WDPN32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.0N 125.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 351 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED
TYPHOON WITH A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION PUNCTUATED 
BY A PINHOLE EYE. LONG CIRRI STREAKS WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY INDICATE ROBUST POLEWARD VENTILATION. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES 
AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW AND LIGHT VWS 
OVER WARM SST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY MUIFA WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER 
THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
EXITING CHINA VIA THE YELLOW SEA WILL WEAKEN THE STR, ALLOWING THE 
SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. BEHIND THE TROUGH, A 
SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOMENTARILY COMPETE FOR STEERING. 
THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONES SPEED OF ADVANCE UP TO TAU 72. 
AFTERWARD, THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL REGAIN FULL STEERING AND 
ACCELERATE TY 14W NORTHWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A 
STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO A PEAK OF 115KTS BY TAU 48. 
AFTERWARD, COOLING SST, EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING DURING THE SLOW TRACK 
MOTION, WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER 
NORTH, VWS WILL ALSO INCREASE, LEADING TO A STEADY EROSION AND BY 120, 
TY 14W WILL BE REDUCED TO 65KTS.    

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE MAIN PACK EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO JUST 50NM BY TAU 48 AND
75NM BY TAU 120. THE SOLE OUTLIER IS NVGM THAT DEFLECTS THE VORTEX
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CHINA AFTER TAU 48. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48, UP TO TAU 72 THEN LOW AFTERWARD. THERE IS
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST THAT IS HELD
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//

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