WDPN32 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.6N 126.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 360 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH AN IMPROVING STRUCTURE THAT IS CONSOLIDATING AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND AN EVER SO SLIGHT INDICATION OF AN EYE TRYING TO FORM. A 092238Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THE WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IS STILL NOTICEABLE AS IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS SATELLITE ANALYSIS. TY MUIFA IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). IN ADDITION, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TUTT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC WHICH IS INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWING FOR BETTER CONSOLIDATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOTED IN MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND THE MICROWAVE PASS, AS WELL AS A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 092238Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 14W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TY MUIFA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 75 KTS BY TAU 12 AND 90 KTS BY TAU 24 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 36, TY MUIFA WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND SET UP A QUASI-STATIONARY POSTURE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 100 KTS BY TAU 36 AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KTS BY TAU 48. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY WILL INDUCE UPWELLING WHICH WILL BE ONE OF THE CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY TAU 72 TO 100 KTS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN NORTHWARD. ANOTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE BROUGHT ON BY AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE WEST DURING THIS TIME. AS A RESULT, TY 14W WILL INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED NORTHWARD. INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 80 KTS BY TAU 96 AND 65 KTS BY TAU 120 AS TY 14W MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER OUTFLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ONLY A 50NM SPREAD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BIFURCATION WITH CONSENSUS MEMBERS IN TRACK SPEED AROUND TAU 48. NAVGEM, AFUM, AND EGRR DO NOT AGREE WITH THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SCENARIO. FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS FORECAST THEY WERE EXCLUDED. WITH THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72, AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO THE COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY OCCURRENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER WHICH, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE LIKELY DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN