WDPN32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.3N 133.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 637 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATED 071710Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS A BROAD LLCC PLACED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CURVED BAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CIMSS
SATCON SHOWING 41 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 071750Z
   CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 071750Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 14W HAS BEGUN TO TRACK IN A NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTHWEST THOUGH TAU 72. BY TAU 96, A DEEP MID LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG OVER CHINA, WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TS 14W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24 WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION
LIKELY FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES.
AFTERWARD, A COMBINATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS
WELL AS AN AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY FROM TAU 96 THROUGH TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LESS AGREEMENT
AND MORE CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 200NM FROM TAU 96 TO TAU 120. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
THEREFORE LENDS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, THE BULK OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS A
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) SOLUTION NEAR 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE IS ALSO TRIGGERED WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS
A POTENTIAL RI PHASE. AFTER TAU 72 INTENSITY GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE
VARIABLE LENDING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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