WDPN32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.0N 134.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 678 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA,
JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MEDIUM-SIZED CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEEP FORMATIVE 
BANDS FEEDING INTO A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT CONTINUES TO
OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM A BROAD LLCC
FEATURE IN THE  070850Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ALSO PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF 
AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 
SUSTAINED 6-HR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE 
WITH WARM SST WITH HIGH OHC, STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 070851Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 071150Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 14W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE STR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BUILDS AND ASSUMES STEERING. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 120KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO 
SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AND BY TAU 120 WILL BE DOWN TO 100KTS. AFTER 
TAU 96, A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG OVER EASTERN 
CHINA AND WEAKEN THE STR, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AND SPREAD OUT GRADUALLY TO 195NM BY TAU 120, LENDING MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARD THE MID- TO EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST TO OFFSET UEMN, THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. THERE IS ALSO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.  


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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