WDPN32 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.5N 135.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 696 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 062137Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD LLCC POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A CURVED SPIRAL BAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 070023Z ASCAT-B IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CENTER WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES AND ASCAT DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 062138Z CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 062350Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 14W IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE WEST, AND WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND REALIGN TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL TURN THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG OVER EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 96, WHICH COULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWESTWARD. TS 14W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION LIKELY FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WARM SST (30-31C) AND VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR (IMPROVED) AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE SPREAD OF 230- 300NM FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120. THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS ARE AFUM, EGRR AND UEMN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE, AND AEMN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. THE STATISTICALLY BETTER VORTEX TRACKERS (ECMWF, EEMN AND AVNO) ARE CLUSTERED CLOSELY TOGETHER AND INDICATE A TRACK TOWARD THE ISHIGAKI-JIMA REGION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THESE TRACKERS AND IS POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE BULK OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE. THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE WITH HWRF INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 123 KNOTS AND COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS, SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS PEAK OF 105 KNOTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE IS TRIGGERED LENDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE IMMINENT RI PHASE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN