WDPN32 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.6N 136.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 676 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. EIR INDICATES INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS, VORTICAL HOT TOWERS, FLARING WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE MASS WITH TOPS AS HIGH AS 58,000 FEET (-87C). A 061625Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGE. A 061625Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE SHOWS A SWATH OF 20-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH WEAKER WINDS OVER THE CENTER AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE, RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY AND THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 061800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 14W IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE WEST, AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND REALIGN TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL TURN THE SYSTEM WESTWARD, INITIALLY, THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG OVER EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 96, WHICH COULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWESTWARD. TD 14W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION LIKELY FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 60 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE SPREAD OF 300-400NM FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120. THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS ARE NAVGEM, AFUM AND UEMN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE, AND AEMN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. THE STATISTICALLY BETTER GUIDANCE (ECMWF, EEMN AND AVNO) ARE CLUSTERED CLOSELY TOGETHER AND INDICATE A TRACK TOWARD THE ISHIGAKI-JIMA REGION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THESE TRACKERS AND IS POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE BULK OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE. THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE WITH HWRF INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 115 KNOTS, JUST ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS PEAK OF 110 KNOTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE IS TRIGGERED LENDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE IMMINENT RI PHASE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN