WDPN32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) 
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.6N 136.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 630 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA,
JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT 
RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND 
INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 061130Z BULLSEYE 
ASCAT PASS SHOWING A TIGHT AND WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 30-KT WIND BARBS 
ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST, MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LAYER EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 14W WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR EXTENSION, THE MOTION SLOWED DUE TO 
BINARY INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING CYCLONE (INVEST 92W) 300NM TO THE 
EAST. THE STR EXTENSION IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE, ALLOWING TD 14W TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 AS THE MAIN STR TO THE NORTHWEST
TAKES FULL CONTROL OF STEERING. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE 
A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 60KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
TO 100KTS BY TAU 120, POSSIBLY HIGHER.    

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE INITIAL SET OF NUMERICAL MODELS ARE WIDELY
AND UNEVENLY SPREAD TO OVER 420NM BY TAU 120 WITH AFUM ON THE LEFT
MARGIN AND AEMN ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. IN VIEW
OF THIS, AND GIVEN THE INITIAL TRACK UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED BY THE
BINARY INTERACTION WITH INVEST 92W, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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