WDPN31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (HINNAMNOR) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.2N 124.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 306 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXPANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH PERSISTENT, ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING POLEWARD AWAY FROM THE UPWELLING COOLER WATER, WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO RE-CONSOLIDATE. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, WHILE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED, FORMATIVE EYE. A 021317Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE WAS RECEIVED TOO LATE TO INCORPORATE INTO THIS WARNING AND A MUCH ANTICIPATED SENTINEL-1 SAR PASS MISSED THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY. THE ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF ISHIGAKIJIMA AND MIYAKOJIMA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, EXTENDING ABOUT 200NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE 50-KNOT WINDS EXTEND ABOUT 120-130NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO 82 AND 78 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 021140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: UPWELLING COOLER WATER ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS TY 12W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER NORTHEAST CHINA AND THE YELLOW SEA AFTER TAU 36. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN AT LOW LEVELS (10-15 KNOTS) WITH FAVORABLE SST VALUES (29-30C). THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 60, TY 12W WILL RECURVE TOWARD SOUTH KOREA AND WESTERN JAPAN AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR CHEJU-DO AROUND TAU 72 AND WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW IN THE SEA OF JAPAN BY TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A 75-115NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 96. HOWEVER, THE 020600Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) INDICATES SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE BULK OF SOLUTIONS OVER SOUTHEAST KOREA WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) INDICATES A WIDER SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FROM BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA TO NORTHERN KYUSHU ISLAND. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 96. THE 020600Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATES INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE 1-DAY TO 3-DAY PERIOD, WHICH GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN