WDPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 38.7N 151.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 487 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT SOMEONE
FINALLY DRUG THE DRUMMER OUT OF THE BACK OF THE VAN AND GOT THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PARTY GOING. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING EXPOSED AND THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
HAS SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY AND THE SPEED OF
ADVANCE ALONG TRACK HAS NEARLY DOUBLED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN TIGHTLY WOUND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
SHIELD IS BEGINNING TO STRETCH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE STORM ARE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF FUSION
WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET. A JETMAX DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF A
SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROF IS EXPEDITING THE PROCESS. POSITIONING IS
BASED ON 242332 GMI SERIES. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS SLIGHTY
ABOVE AGENC DVORAK ASSESSMENTS BASED ON THE EVIDENT DECAYING TREND
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS SHOWING IN ANIMATED IR IMAGERY, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ADT AND SATCON TRENDS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO REFLECT
THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TY 11W IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS ANCHORED NEAR 40N 170E AND BEGINNING TO BE
ACCELERATED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 63 KTS AT 2340Z
   CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 242040Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
ARE DROPPING PRECIPITOUSLY. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS IS
ACCELERATING. TY 11W WILL ENCOUNTER MORE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND COOLER WATERS AND ACCELERATE ITS
SPEED OF ADVANCE ALONG ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THICKNESS AND 500MB
VORTICITY CHARTS INDICATE THE ETT PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETED NEAR
TAU 24. FLORIDA STATE PHASE-BASED DIAGRAMS BASED ON GFS OUTPUT
SUPPORT THAT SCENARIO. THE PROCESS IS PROCEEDING A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN TYPICAL DUE TO THE SEASON BECAUSE THE UPSTREAM AIR IS NOT AS
SEVERELY DRY AND COLD AND THE JETSTREAM NOT AS VIGOROUS AS IT WILL
BE IN THE AUTUMN. TYPHOON TOKAGE WILL COMPLETE ITS ETT AND TRACK
TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS AS A GALE FORCE LOW. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE AN OUTSTANDING JOB WITH
THIS STORM OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS ON THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST NEAR THE MEAN. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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