WDPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 37.1N 150.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 480 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON 15W (TOKAGE) IS TAKING ITS SWEET TIME ABOUT ENTERING THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM OUTFLOW REMAINS DISTINCT FROM THE JETSTREAM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST--FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS FILLED--THE JTWC SWITCHED FIXING
METHODS FROM EYE TO EMBEDDED CENTER--BUT THE CORE REMAINS SYMETRIC.
THERE IS THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF DRYING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS COCOONED FROM
THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS ROUNDED THE RIDGE IT HAS NOT YET BEGUN ACCELERATION
ALONG TRACK. THE LLCC IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO UNFAVORABLY COOL
WATERS. THE CURRENT POSITIONING SPLITS THE JTWC AND JMA FIXES,
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75KTS
BASED ON A CI OF T4.5 FROM JTWC AND ADT. THE INTENSITY ALSO
REFLECTS A 5MB RISE IN MSLP SINCE THE 12Z POSITION AND IS COHERENT
WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A DECAYING SCENARIO.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM AN EXCELLENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS AT 241126Z.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS
ANCHORED NEAR 40N 170E.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 92 KTS AT 241546Z
   CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 241740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: TY 11W WILL TRACK INTO MUCH COOLER SEA WATERS
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS
WILL REALLY RAMP UP DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TOKAGE TRACKS INTO
MUCH COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE ENCROACHING
WESTERLIES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS
ROUDING THE WESTERNMOST AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THIS
MOMENT AND WILL SOON ACCELERATE AND SHOOT INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
ALONG WITH THAT PROCESS COMES THE PACKAGE DEAL OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, STRETCHING OF THE GRADIENT LEVEL VORTICITY
FIELDS, DIABATIC COOLING, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ALTHOUGH THE
INTENSITY WILL PLUNGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE ABUNDANT ENERGY
AVAILABLE FROM THE UPSTREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM
AS A GALE FORCE LOW ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THICKNESS
AND PHASED-BASED GUIDANCE FROM FSU INDICATE THE ETT PROCESS WILL
PROCEED MORE SLOWLY THAN IS TYPICAL, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
IT IS NOWHERE NEAR AUTUMN YET. NONTEHELESS THE ETT PROCESS WILL BE
COMPLETED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 60.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND
INTENSITY. THE TRACK FORECAST RIDES THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE MEAN AS WELL.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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