WDPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 36.2N 149.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 469 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING CORE CONVECTION WITH A RAGGED 10NM EYE AND DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES ARE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND
ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS STILL PRESENT, WHICH IS MAINTAINING
THE CORE CONVECTION AND WEAK EYE FOR NOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 241126Z ASCAT-B IMAGE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TY 11W IS ROUNDING THE AXIS OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 94 KTS AT 241123Z
   CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 241140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. TY 11W SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS
IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING
(25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COMMENCES EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL
SOLUTIONS OF 50NM OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12, HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS AFTER
TRANSITIONING TO A COLD-CORE LOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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