WDPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 35.2N 149.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 421 NM EAST OF NARITA AIRPORT
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN EXPANDING 17NM ROUND
EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS STEADY OVERALL
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES ARE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AS
EVIDENCED IN THE 240602Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS
EROSION OF THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS STILL PRESENT, WHICH IS MAINTAINING THE CORE CONVECTION
AND EYE FOR NOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TY 11W IS ROUNDING THE AXIS OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 98 KTS AT 240324Z
   CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 240540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. TY 11W SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT 
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING (25 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND COMMENCES EXTRA-TROPICAL 
TRANSITION (ETT). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT 
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL 
CHARACTERISTICS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 70NM AT TAU 24
TO 90NM AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12, HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS AFTER
TRANSITIONING TO A COLD-CORE LOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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