WDPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 34.1N 148.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 415 NM EAST OF NARITA AIRPORT
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A TIGHTLY 
COMPACT SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A 10NM SYMMETRIC EYE, WHICH LENDS 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
ARE STILL FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SST VALUES. THE PERSISTENT EYE 
HAS CONTINUED TO HELP IN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES, WITH ALL AGENCIES 
RANGING BETWEEN A T4.5 AND T5.0, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 99 KTS AT 232247Z
   CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 232340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W HAS STARTED SLIGHTLY RECURVING TO THE 
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. TY 
TOKAGE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES TO 
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE PEAK INTENSITY APPEARS TO HAVE ALREADY 
OCCURRED BETWEEN 23-18Z AND 24-00Z. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE 
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN ENCOUNTERING 
HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. 
NEARING TAUS 36 AND 48, TY 11W WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION 
(ETT), AND THE SYSTEMS OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL WEAKEN. BY 
TAU 48, TY TOKAGE WILL COMPLETE ETT, AS IT EMBEDS ITSELF WITHIN THE 
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND EXHIBITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS A 
STRONG GALE-FORCED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT 
WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF LESS THAN 140NM THROUGH TAU 
48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL TRACK UP TO TAU 48. GFS 
AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS ALREADY 
OCCURRED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE UNTIL ETT HAPPENS. THE OVERALL 
INTENSITY CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE LIMITED MODEL INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE FROM A MAINTENANCE ISSUE AT FNMOC.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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