WDPN32 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 34.1N 148.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 415 NM EAST OF NARITA AIRPORT MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A TIGHTLY COMPACT SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A 10NM SYMMETRIC EYE, WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SST VALUES. THE PERSISTENT EYE HAS CONTINUED TO HELP IN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES, WITH ALL AGENCIES RANGING BETWEEN A T4.5 AND T5.0, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 99 KTS AT 232247Z CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 232340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W HAS STARTED SLIGHTLY RECURVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR AXIS. TY TOKAGE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS.THE PEAK INTENSITY APPEARS TO HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BETWEEN 23-18Z AND 24-00Z. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN ENCOUNTERING HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NEARING TAUS 36 AND 48, TY 11W WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND THE SYSTEMS OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL WEAKEN. BY TAU 48, TY TOKAGE WILL COMPLETE ETT, AS IT EMBEDS ITSELF WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND EXHIBITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS A STRONG GALE-FORCED LOW- PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF LESS THAN 140NM THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL TRACK UP TO TAU 48. GFS AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE UNTIL ETT HAPPENS. THE OVERALL INTENSITY CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE LIMITED MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM A MAINTENANCE ISSUE AT FNMOC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN