WDPN32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 33.0N 148.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 433 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A TIGHT COMPACT SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A 10NM SYMMETRIC EYE, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH FAIR POLEWARD AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SST VALUES. THE PERSISTENT EYE HAS HELPED AID IN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES, WITH ALL AGENCIES AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) COMING IN AT A T5.0 - 90KTS. SATELLITE CONSENSUS CAME IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 95 KNOTS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 98 KTS AT 231606Z CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 231740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W WILL BEGIN RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TOKAGE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN UPWELLING FROM COOLER WATER BELOW. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTER COLDER WATER IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. THE SYSTEMS OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. BY TAU 72 TOKAGE WILL MOVE INTO A REGION OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RAPIDLY ERODE THE OVERALL SYSTEM AS IT COMPLETES ETT, AND EMBEDS ITSELF WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND EXHIBITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF LESS THAN 140 NM THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL TRACK UP TO TAU 48 BUT MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 80 TO 95 KNOTS AT TAU 24. HOWEVER, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON THE ROUNDING OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TREND WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW, WHICH LENDS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN