WDPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 31.6N 149.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 446 NM NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TY 11W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 35 KNOTS FROM 45 KNOTS AT 221200Z TO
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS AT 231200Z. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A
SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 9NM RAGGED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
(29-30C) SST VALUES. WITH THE RECENT FORMATION OF A PERSISTENT EYE
IN EIR IMAGERY, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE JUMPED TO
TO 77 TO 90 KNOTS. ADT ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO INCREASED QUICKLY FROM
75 KNOTS AT 231210Z TO 90 KNOTS AT 231340Z. ADDITIONALLY, THE RAW T
NUMBER HAS INCREASED TO 5.3 (ABOUT 95 KNOTS) WITH AN EYE TEMP OF
+7.5C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY BASED ON THE 231200Z DATA IS ASSESSED
AT 80 KTS BUT IS CLEARLY TRENDING UP; THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A 231146Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE.   

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 231149Z
   CIMSS ADT: 75 KTS AT 231210Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. TY 
11W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO A 
PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL 
TRANSITION (ETT) AND WEAKEN AS IT FIRST INTERACTS WITH THE 
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND TAU 
36. AFTER TAU 36, TY 11W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO 
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ETT, BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF LESS THAN 75 NM
THROUGH TAU 48. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 KNOTS AT TAU 24, HOWEVER, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED HIGHER BASED ON THE CURRENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TREND AND ROBUST OUTFLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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