WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON)        
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.6N 120.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 413 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AFTER A QUICK TRANSIT ACROSS LUZON, TS 10W HAS REEMERGED OVER WATER
JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST TIP OF LUZON. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE CORE STRUCTURE 
WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE INTO A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 
231029Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE SPIRAL 
BANDING OVER WATER. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAOAG (18.2N 
120.5E), THE SYSTEM CENTER PASSED JUST NORTH WITH WINDS SHIFTING 
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WITH A 
MINIMUM SLP OF 993.3MB. SURFACE WINDS WERE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 
BELOW 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL 
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN 
AVERAGE OF THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH LAND

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL CHINA. TS 10W SHOULD 
RAPIDLY RE-CONSOLIDATE DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM 
(29-30C) SST VALUES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 
70 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36 WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL 
ABOUT 110NM WEST OF HONG KONG. TS 10W WILL DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 
72.     

MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS, AND THE LATEST JTWC TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
50-70 NM SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 24 TO TAU
36. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH 
HWRF AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 60-65 
KNOTS. THE 230600Z COAMPS-TC INTENSITY ENSEMBLE HAS BACKED OFF ON 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION BUT DOES INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION AS REFLECTED IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. 
VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO HIGH (25-35 KNOTS) LEVELS BY 
TAU 36 WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.     

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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