WDPN32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 30.2N 149.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 424 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI
SHIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TY 11W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND HAS FLIRTED WITH EYE
FORMATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A
230530Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A 90NM DIAMETER
CONVECTIVE CORE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WARM (29-30C) SST VALUES. BASED ON THE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO
65 KNOTS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 65 KTS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 231149Z
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 230540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. 
TY 11W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO
A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND WEAKEN AS IT FIRST INTERACTS WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND
TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TY 11W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ETT, BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF LESS THAN 50 NM
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH NAVGEM THE
SOLE OUTLIER WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
RANGING FROM 65 TO 85 KNOTS AT TAU 24 THUS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE 
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED AT THE UPPER RANGE OF 
FORECASTS CLOSE TO THE HWRF SOLUTION BASED ON THE STRONG POSSIBILITY 
OF EYE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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