WDPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.5N 150.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 684 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED
SYSTEM WITH A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS NOW
HAS A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK FIXES TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH A
FORMATIVE EYE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA WITH WARM SST, STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW 
VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 222120Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 222030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS TOKAGE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
THEN TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 12, CREST THE STR AXIS BEFORE
ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
FUEL SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85KTS BY TAU 36.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY
TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 40-KT COLD CORE SYSTEM. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
MINOR AND EVEN SPREADING UP TO TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF GRADIENT WINDS
INTRODUCED DURING ETT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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