WDPN32 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 27.2N 151.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 767 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AS FORMATIVE BANDS TRAILING FROM THE SOUTH, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SEMI-CIRCULAR EYE FEATURE IN THE 221811Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING THE MODERATE VWS. WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 222030Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: NONE ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS TOKAGE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THEN TURN MORE NORHTWARD AFTER TAU 24, CREST THE STR AXIS BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABEL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 50-KT COLD CORE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE LIMITED NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN