WDPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 27.2N 151.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 767 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AS FORMATIVE BANDS TRAILING FROM THE SOUTH, 
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SEMI-CIRCUALR EYE FEATURE IN THE 221811Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED EITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED 
DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
OFFSETTING THE MODERATE VWS. 
  
WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED 
TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 222030Z
   
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE 
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS 
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: NONE

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: 
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM 
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING. 

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
 
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS TOKAGE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THEN TURN MORE NORHTWARD AFTER TAU 
24, CREST THE STR AXIS BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABEL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL 
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS 
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE 
AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 50-KT COLD CORE SYSTEM. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE LIMITED NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN 
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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