WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.6N 122.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 169 NM NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS 
NOW TOTALLY OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. FEEDER BANDS ARE MOSTLY WRAPPING IN FROM THE 
WEST TO SOUTH PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON FORMATIVE 
EYE FEATURES IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE 
EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF LUZON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 
THE AGENCY FIXES AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH A 
FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH WARM SST AND 
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING THE MODERATE VWS. 

WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.  

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 221940Z
   CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 221719Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE 
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS 
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: 
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING. 

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MA-ON WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BALER, 
QUEZON PROVINCE, PHILIPPINES BEFORE TAU 06, DRAG ACROSS LUZON AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA VIA 
LAOAG AROUND TAU 18. AROUND TAU 60, TS 10W WILL MAKE A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF 
HONG KONG AND TRACK INLAND JUST NORTH OF THE VIETNAM-CHINA BORDER. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL 
FUEL MORE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (NOT SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST) PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
AFTERWARD, LAND INTERCACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY. AFTER EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA 
SEA, THE WARMER SSTS WILL HELP FUEL A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL 
INTO CHINA. THE RUGGED SOUTHERN CHINA TERRAIN WILL THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTME TO DISSIPATION 
BEFORE TAU 72.  

 
MODEL DISCUSSION: INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO CONTINUING TECHNICAL ISSUES BUT ENOUGH 
TO RAISE THE TRACK CONFIDENCE TO MEDIUM. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT MOSTLY DUE TO THE SOLID AND SINGULAR STEERING MECHANISM - THE DEEP LAYER STR TO THE 
NORTH. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE CTCX AND COTC INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAIN AGGRESSIVE, PEAKING 
THE SYSTEM AT OVER 75 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST IS BELOW THESE ESTIMATES AND MORE 
IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LACK OF RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS 
LOW.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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